In this paper we study online Reinforcement Learning (RL) in partially observable dynamical systems. We focus on the Predictive State Representations (PSRs) model, which is an expressive model that captures other well-known models such as Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP). PSR represents the states using a set of predictions of future observations and is defined entirely using observable quantities. We develop a novel model-based algorithm for PSRs that can learn a near optimal policy in sample complexity scaling polynomially with respect to all the relevant parameters of the systems. Our algorithm naturally works with function approximation to extend to systems with potentially large state and observation spaces. We show that given a realizable model class, the sample complexity of learning the near optimal policy only scales polynomially with respect to the statistical complexity of the model class, without any explicit polynomial dependence on the size of the state and observation spaces. Notably, our work is the first work that shows polynomial sample complexities to compete with the globally optimal policy in PSRs. Finally, we demonstrate how our general theorem can be directly used to derive sample complexity bounds for special models including $m$-step weakly revealing and $m$-step decodable tabular POMDPs, POMDPs with low-rank latent transition, and POMDPs with linear emission and latent transition.

We study Reinforcement Learning for partially observable dynamical systems using function approximation. We propose a new \textit{Partially Observable Bilinear Actor-Critic framework}, that is general enough to include models such as observable tabular Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), observable Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG), Predictive State Representations (PSRs), as well as a newly introduced model Hilbert Space Embeddings of POMDPs and observable POMDPs with latent low-rank transition. Under this framework, we propose an actor-critic style algorithm that is capable of performing agnostic policy learning. Given a policy class that consists of memory based policies (that look at a fixed-length window of recent observations), and a value function class that consists of functions taking both memory and future observations as inputs, our algorithm learns to compete against the best memory-based policy in the given policy class. For certain examples such as undercomplete observable tabular POMDPs, observable LQGs and observable POMDPs with latent low-rank transition, by implicitly leveraging their special properties, our algorithm is even capable of competing against the globally optimal policy without paying an exponential dependence on the horizon in its sample complexity.

Real-world sequential decision making problems commonly involve partial observability, which requires the agent to maintain a memory of history in order to infer the latent states, plan and make good decisions. Coping with partial observability in general is extremely challenging, as a number of worst-case statistical and computational barriers are known in learning Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). Motivated by the problem structure in several physical applications, as well as a commonly used technique known as "frame stacking", this paper proposes to study a new subclass of POMDPs, whose latent states can be decoded by the most recent history of a short length $m$. We establish a set of upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity for learning near-optimal policies for this class of problems in both tabular and rich-observation settings (where the number of observations is enormous). In particular, in the rich-observation setting, we develop new algorithms using a novel "moment matching" approach with a sample complexity that scales exponentially with the short length $m$ rather than the problem horizon, and is independent of the number of observations. Our results show that a short-term memory suffices for reinforcement learning in these environments.